Number of Jobs — The economy has added 851,000 jobs since we published our last report. As of December, the number of total nonfarm jobs stands 9,265,000 higher than when Obama first took office.
That compares with the nearly 23 million jobs gained during the booming years of Bill Clinton’s presidency, and the fewer than 1.3 million added during President George W. Bush’s eight years, which were plagued by two recessions.
Unemployment Rate — Meanwhile the unemployment rate went down again, to 5.0 percent. It’s now 2.8 percentage points lower than it was in January 2009, when the president first took office in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Historically, the jobless rate is significantly lower than it has been most of the time since 1948. The historical median is 5.6 percent.
Long-term Unemployment — The number of long-term unemployed — those who have been looking for work for 27 weeks or longer — has dropped further since our last report. The number went down to less than 2.1 million in December, which is 614,000 fewer than when the president first took office. But it is still 761,000 higher than it was in December 2007, at the start of the Great Recession.
Labor Participation Rate — The labor force participation rate, which is the portion of the civilian population that is either employed or currently looking for work, ticked upward since our last report, to 62.6 percent in December. But it is still 3.1 percentage points lower than when Obama took office.
Contrary to many of Obama’s critics, however, that decline is due mostly to factors outside the control of any president — factors such as the post-World War II baby boomers reaching retirement age. Survey data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in December show that those outside the labor force in 2014 said their reasons for not working were retirement (44 percent), illness or disability (19 percent), school attendance (18 percent) or home responsibilities (15 percent). Only 3 percent said they couldn’t find a job, or gave some other reason.
Job Openings — The number of job openings has declined only slightly since our last report, when it had peaked at the highest level in the 15 years that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking it.
The latest figures from the BLS show there were 5,431,000 jobs open in November, down 4 percent from the revised peak figure recorded in July, but still up 97 percent over the month Obama took office. The number of job openings now has exceeded 5 million for 10 consecutive months, after being below 5 million every month since January 2001.
Profits & Markets
Corporate Profits — Corporate profits have soared under Obama. After-tax profits were running at an annual rate of just under $1.8 trillion in the July-October quarter of last year, the most recent figures available. That’s down somewhat from the previous quarter — which was a record. But still 166 percent higher than in the quarter just before Obama entered office.
That quarter’s profits were unusually low, ravaged by the Great Recession. But even compared with the best quarter prior to his taking office, which was the third quarter of 2006, after-tax profits are up 27 percent.
Consumer Prices – Overall inflation in consumer prices has remained moderate over Obama’s more than six-and-a-half years in office, rising by only 12.4 percent between January 2009 and November, the most recent month for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the Consumer Price Index.
The average yearly rise under Obama of 1.9 percent is less than half the post-World War II average, according to BLS figures. Between 1946 and 2008 the average yearly rise in the CPI was 4 percent, measured from December to December. In the most recent 12 months, the CPI has gone up only a little more than 0.2 percent.
Real Weekly Earnings – The recent low inflation has helped the buying power of weekly paychecks. The BLS measure of average weekly earnings for all workers, adjusted for inflation and seasonal factors, is 3.4 percent higher in November than it was when Obama first took office.
(Note: This figure may be revised slightly in our next report. The BLS is currently recalculating figures for January 2009 and for several earlier months, after discovering a data processing error. For this report we are still using as our starting point the figure that BLS originally published. The revised figure won’t be available until Feb. 5.)
Food Stamps
The number of people receiving food stamps dropped again since our last report, by nearly 142,000. As of October, the most recent month on record, nearly 45.4 million Americans were still receiving the food aid, now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
That’s 5.1 percent lower than the record level set in December 2012, but still nearly 42 percent higher than it was when Obama took office in 2009.
But as we noted when Republicans called Obama the “Food Stamp President,” 14.7 million people were added to the food-stamp rolls during George W. Bush’s time in office. By comparison, the net gain under Obama now stands at just under 13.4 million — and it’s slowly declining as the economy improves.
Health Insurance
The number of people lacking health insurance continued to decline since our last report, according to the most recent data from the National Health Interview Survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
During the first six months of 2015, about 28.5 million people of all ages reported being without coverage at the time they were interviewed, the CDC reported in its most recent quarterly report. That’s down from 43.8 million during all of 2008 (see Table 1.1a), a drop of 15.3 million people since Obama first took office.
As a percentage of all U.S. residents, the uninsured have dropped to 9 percent of the population in the first half of last year, from 14.7 percent in 2008.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 12 Jan 2016.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey; Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 12 Jan 2016.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey; Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks & Over, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 12 Jan 2016.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Job Openings, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 12 Jan 2016.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey; Labor Force Participation Rate.” Data extracted 12 Jan 2016.
